Blog Post
Calling time
Once criticised for doom-mongering, the mainstream media now seems to be queuing up to call time on the economic downturn. Two weeks ago there were reports that both France and Germany had emerged from recession, having turned around their negative trajectory...
The tech savvy North
One of the questions we always ask venture investors is what attracted them to that particular company and sector. For every tech-related business, the answer is usually the same: the region is at the forefront of technology developments
Summer reveries
2009 has proven a tough year thus far. Some high-profile deals have collapsed before they could complete, as was the case of Clessidra's acquisition of a 30% stake in Cavalli; or Bain's attempt - which seemed strong - to acquire Safilo. Meanwhile, some...
Month of truth
September is set to be this year's moment of truth. At the beginning of 2009, the situation was too opaque to do anything more than express astonishment at how fast and fundamentally the markets had deteriorated. Most deal-makers went into extended hibernation...
Mixed signals
For all the talk of stillness associated with the summer, the various regional unquote" publications have recorded an increased number of deals lately. The latest issues of France and Nordic unquote" have registered 30 and 27 deals respectively, up substantially...
A woman's job
Most private equity black-tie dinners resemble penguin colonies: hordes of uniformly dressed men walking about, increasingly clumsily as the champagne flows. Even when this sea of black is very occasionally broken up by a more colourful ensemble, this...
Up and out
The market is picking up at last. After a sombre year in which deal values plummeted quarter on quarter, reaching a deep trough in January, they recorded their first quarterly uptick in the second quarter. This is cause for optimism - vendors of sound...
False security
Despite the current wave of companies in trouble, few are reporting major changes at the top. In fact, many senior execs of private equity-backed companies find themselves in more meetings than ever with their backers and lenders. A lucky few will have...
Summer is here ..
But I would not bank on images of pleasant holidays by the seaside. In Italy, 21 banks have been put under review for possible downgrades, including Banca MPS, Banca Popolare di Milano and Banca Sella Holding. Intesa's long-term and short-term ratings...
Perseverance is a virtue
Investors in private equity will reap less reward from their investments than they have in recent years. This is not surprising: yesteryear's stellar returns were disproportionate and were largely buoyed by leverage, meaning the risk:reward profile was...
There may be trouble ahead ..
Following Permira and Candover's equity wipe-out with Italian yacht maker Ferretti, it is PAI's turn to get a haircut with the lenders taking over at Monier, its roofing portfolio company. All of these are a direct result of the combination of the leverage...
Domino effect
It was two years ago this summer that the repercussions of financial engineering first started reverberating through the system. It has been a protracted process. The long-awaited wave of defaults is starting to take shape, with levels doubling in Q1...
The worst is yet to come
It was supposed to be a seminar about green shoots, organised by the Nordic Chamber of Commerce together with Argentum and other industry players and held at the London Stock Exchange. But one presentation after another exceeded the last in sober realism,...
Something to YELL about
Eight years ago, BT's spin-off of directories business YELL marked Europe's largest-ever LBO. Apax Partners and Hicks Muse Tate & Furst (now Lion) paid ТЃ2.14bn for the company, shelling out another $600m the following year to bolt on McLeod. While eyebrows...
Watching your back
Every major corporate crisis seems to spark rumours of private equity big guns circling the floundering target. Recently, parts of the crumbling Merckle empire were said to be being examined by various players, while Opel, the German subsidiary of General...
Passing the buck
The end of the second quarter is nigh, and deal activity is slowly picking up. The last two editions of Nordic unquote" have featured four buyouts and, at the time of going press, Altor announced its acquisition of Pulse MedTech, a designer of components...
Overdue: LP defaults
It's been a long time since most GPs have asked LPs for money. Special situation secondaries funds aside (last month clocked up $11bn for secondaries), most GPs are sitting tight this year, cosying up to LPs but not asking them for any firm commitments....
A test of nerve
The usually lively period that preceeds the quiet summer months has been anything but vivacious. Rather, many are looking towards the summer hopeful that the bottom of the market is close and the only way is up. But it is likely that, not for the first...
Unchartered waters
If one thing is certain about the current market, it is uncertainty. In the best-case scenarios, investors are successfully pre-empting problems and keeping their investment alive to fight another day. On the other hand, measures can be implemented too...
Every cloud ..
Following the cancellation of the Preziozo buyout and the Giannoni sale in May, buyout news is equally bleak this month. The drop in the volume of buyouts has been dramatic, with only the MBI of Capitaine Fracasse taking place. Adding to the gloom, the...
Maybe it's you
It seems that for each bank claiming to be "open for business" there are at least two to three buyout houses retorting it's a load of hogwash. Indeed, of the mere 14 buyouts recorded in the UK in Q1, more than a third involved no banks. Despite this,...
Going once, going twice
The discussion of what constitutes fair value has become quite poignant for J C Flowers, especially with regards to his ill-timed investments into ailing German lenders HSH Nordbank and HRE
Bottoming out: enter the W-curve
unquote" is not brave enough to call an upturn in the market, but there are increasing signs that it's not far off. This issue alone sees nine funds closed for a total of $22bn: at least two exceeded their targets and one was oversubscribed - very different...