A test of nerve
The usually lively period that preceeds the quiet summer months has been anything but vivacious. Rather, many are looking towards the summer hopeful that the bottom of the market is close and the only way is up. But it is likely that, not for the first time, the overly optimistic expectations of some will be met by inconvenient truths down the road
It is clear that the LBO bubble was always going to be unsustainable. For some less fortunate, (previously) well-established houses, the prolonged liquidity scarcity and trading declines may have struck a fatal blow. For others that relied less on financial engineering (or that through sheer luck in timing were in exit mode at the market's peak), now may be the time to invest.
However the current market is not for the faint-hearted. Investors will be forced to take (carefully) calculated risks and accept lower returns. Traditional buyout specialists will also have to adapt: deal volume has shown (more) activity in the expansion segment of the market, while some may be also readying to acquire distressed assets. Renewable energy and cleantech infrastructure also remains interesting to sponsors and lenders alike.
In the end, some will strike gold. But while visibility remains poor the attrition rate is likely to be high and the best investments are likely to be identified in hindsight rather than through a remarkable stroke of foresight.
Yours sincerely,
Francinia Protti-Alvarez, Editor, Southern Europe unquote"
Tel: +44 20 7004 7476
francinia.protti-alvarez@incisivemedia.com.
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