H1 Review: Nordic pricing frothy as cross-border capital pours in

The Nordic region retained its position as the most expensive place in Europe for private equity firms to buy companies in the second quarter of 2019, according to research by Clearwater International and Unquote. This is unsurprising given that the UK and Ireland, which has historically challenged for this title, is still in the midst of an unfolding economic and political crisis. Says Clearwater International Denmark's John Jensen: "In general, higher pricing in the Nordic countries is due to the more stable macro environment that we have in this area of Europe. We don't have the same political uncertainty that the UK has around Brexit and so far we haven't seen a large impact from the US/China trade war."

In total, 62 buyout deals were completed in the first half, with an aggregate value of €11.3bn, according to Unquote Data. This was a slight decrease on H1 2018's 68 deals and H2's 69, but in line with the region's post-2016 half-year average of 63 transactions and ahead of the post-2012 average of 55 deals. By contrast, the UK saw a substantial drop-off from 118 deals in H2 2018 to just 99 in the first half of this year, the lowest level since H1 2016.

This stability has attracted capital from the rest of Europe, despite the high pricing, as PE firms rush to deploy their mounting stores of dry powder into high-quality assets. As Unquote previously reported, PE firms headquartered outside the Nordic countries completed a record 25% of the region's PE-backed buyouts in 2018, according to Norwegian fund-of-funds Argentum's annual report The State of Nordic Private Equity. These findings were mirrored in Unquote Data, which showed that the largest group of these investors was headquartered in the UK, including Apax Partners, Cinven, HgCapital and Terra Firma. North American buyout firms were the next most active, with Abry Partners, OpenGate Capital and TA Associates among the GPs completing deals.

"Our processes are much broader now," says Jensen. "We will consider all relevant Scandinavian PE, but also all relevant UK, German and Benelux-based PE, because we know they have a mandate to invest outside of their core regions."

Foreign experts
Given the importance of a local presence in these markets, this development is somewhat surprising. However, as the aforementioned examples of non-Nordic managers show, sector-focused funds have an advantage that transcends national boundaries. "One trend we've noticed is that most of the new entrants are sector-focused," says Jensen. "For example, we advised Hg on the acquisition of IT Relation and L Catterton on the acquisition of the Danish fashion brand Ganni."

However, external PE funds are not the only new entrants in Nordic (and specifically Danish) PE. Jensen says Swedish PE's success has meant its GPs have rapidly branched out into neighbouring countries. "Almost all Swedish PE funds have scaled up their local team in Denmark in recent years, including firms like Adelis, Valedo and IK," says Jensen. "There has been some movement the other way, with Axcel and Polaris setting up smaller teams outside of Denmark, but in general the trend is Swedish funds expanding out of Sweden and into other Nordic countries."

One thing all these investors have in common is that growth is still at the top of their agenda. "Despite growing concerns about the end of the business cycle and the impact of a US/China trade war, we are optimistic heading into H2," says Jensen. "If things remain stable on the macro side, then the next 6-12 months look pretty good."

Nordic GPs have also continued to perform well in the fundraising market. So far, four funds have held final closes for a total of €3.9bn in 2019. This result puts the first six months of 2019 behind H1 2018, when more than €16bn was raised across five vehicles; but considering the distortion of the region's two largest players (EQT and Nordic) wrapping up their fundraises in that period, the first semester of 2019 should not be seen as a cause for concern.

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