The only way is up: new poll reveals strong optimism for 2010

Kimberly Romaine
15 February 2010

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Most readers are optimistic for the year ahead - but cynics have good cause for concern. By Kimberly Romaine.

The first three months of this year will continue the uptick seen in the second half of last year, according to an online poll conducted by unquote". More than three quarters of respondents are positive for the industry's prospects - and why wouldn't they be? The industry is emerging from lows not seen since before Europe's private equity market truly took off in the early noughties.

Following a dire first quarter, the industry grew steadily, with the end of the year going out with the spectacular bangs of the €2.3bn Springer SBO in Germany, the $2.2bn AB InBev buyout in CEE and the €1.1bn Marken SBO in the UK. The positive activity spilled over into January, with four deals in one week clocking up nearly €2bn.

Despite this, more than a fifth of respondents feel the momentum that characterised the end of last year will be short-lived.

Nay-sayers cited the holiday rush as the reason for a frenetic end to the year, as well as some spill-over into 2010. In fact, unquote" data reveals January recording nearly €3bn across 19 buyouts, a dramatic increase on last January's paltry €391m. Traditionally, January is the slowest month of the year for buyouts in Europe, with August the next slowest. Thus if last month's figures are anything to go by, 2010 could be on track for a strong year.

But advisers caution against too much optimism. Says one corporate financier: "Our general pipeline was manic over Christmas and is now quiet again - interestingly our corporate restructuring pipeline is also quiet - so I think Q2 will be quiet for private equity."