CEE private equity: Light at the end of the tunnel?

As was outlined at today's fourth annual unquote" CEE Private Equity Congress in London, this sentiment is felt very keenly in the Central and Eastern European regions. Business confidence has been shaken by the latest developments and it is not difficult to see why: after all, what chance do companies have if entire countries are so obviously unable to service their debt?

But, if the mood at today's event is anything to go by, there is cause for some optimism: there remains an unshakeable belief among local experts that the future for the region is at least better than it is for their Western neighbours. Throughout the programme, speakers and panellists were keen to underline some of the many positives that should see both the region's economies, and private equity markets, recover well over time.

To begin with, foreign direct investment in CEE, which underpinned its strong economic growth in the few years prior to the global meltdown, should begin to return, albeit at lower levels. Similarly, there is real scope for the region's banking segment to return to growth over the longer term. Perhaps most importantly, the area remains highly competitive, with a skilled, educated workforce, lower wage costs and a greater political capacity to make the changes necessary to achieve growth.

"It is my view that private equity will enjoy many opportunities, though issues still remain. Central and Eastern Europe may not be the most popular area in global terms, now is the time to think in counter-cyclical terms", says Kurt Geiger, the chairman of Thunderbird Private Equity Centre and former head of financial institutions at the EBRD.

This sentiment was clearly echoed by a panel of local private equity specialists, though again the difficulties - both endemic and transient - associated with investing in the market at the moment were also the subject of much discussion. There is estimated to be in excess of €7bn of dry powder available for investment in the region (more if the emerging family office capital is taken into account), but in the current environment, the supply of deals is not there. Neither are the local stock markets a proven route for GPs to list their investees.

"The biggest problem for us at the moment", according to founder and managing partner of Resource Partners Piotr Nocén, "Is the do-nothing strategy. You spend six months working with a potential investee business only for the entrepreneur to decide, eventually, that they do not have the confidence to proceed."

Nevertheless, assuming that the doomsday scenario for the Euro, outlined this week by the German chancellor, does not come to pass, private equity activity within the Union's newest member states is sure to grow above the European average: the opportunities outweigh the negatives, even in these uncertain times. As Geiger concludes: "At least the light we can see at the end of the tunnel is no longer a train heading in our direction".

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• CEE
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